I finally found myself in a place with room for a workshop. Got my taig mil (the CR model with the 1/4 hp motor) out of storage and put an ER16 spindle on it. I've done a bunch of cutting with it, and mostly everything works great.
The problem is when I put it on either of the two fastest pulleys. It turns maybe 200 rpm, and won't ever get up to speed. Doesn't matter how loose or tight the belt is.
Doing the reversed ohmmeter test on the start cap suggests that it's OK. I'm not sure what else to try.