[MBG]

Where does everybody think manufacturing in the usa is going to be within the next say 5 years.??

[mxtras]

I really don't want to think about it......

With the rising prices of energy, labor costs are going to be going through the roof soon - as if they are not high enough already. Insurance costs, medical costs - everything in the states is on a historic rise.

The US manufacturing community will find overseas options much more attractive in the coming year - I have no doubts about that. It's business.

Scott

[MBG]

yea... I Guess we are screwed.. this sucks... Is there any work for us in china?? :\??

[Caprirs]

Depends on who you are. The lower level skills will keep getting outsourced. However, try as they might, the rest of the world cannot match the USA at the higher level skills regardless of the field/industry. The key to job security in the future will be to continue to learn and grow. It will be increasingly difficult to simply learn one trade and then find a job for life. Automotive mechanics cannot survive without re-training and keeping up to date with the changes in the field. Would you go to a doctor that hasn't had an ounce of training since leaving med school? Or do you assume he spends a certain amount of time reading the trade journals and going to seminars to learn the latest techniques, methods and technologies?

The easier it is to learn the job, the easier it will be to find someone else to do it for less money. Thus, to maintain a higher wage in this country, the individual's skill level has to remain high and not stagnate. Since companies are cutting training more frequently and investing less in the individual employee, it's up to the employee to keep his knowledge and skills up to date. That may mean reading some more books, changing jobs to learn new skills, enrolling in schools, etc.

I think the West cannot be beaten for high quality work and skill. However, I also think many in this country have an attitude of entitlement and believe the responsibility for education/training falls on the government/employer instead of belonging to the individual. Look after yourself and your future and you will come through just fine while the company that "saved" money tanks somewhere down the road.

[MBG]

that is good to hear... Yes I am improving on my education now..I am working at a tool and mold shop now and at the same time at nights going to school for engineering... I just hope we still have manufacturing in this country to be able to use that...

but if what you said is right looks like I am on the right track.... I mean i'm 20 years old I don't have to much knowledge in this field. I just wnet to trade school to learn it and that is it about a month on the job now... :\...

[DieGuy]

Thirty years ago when I started one could work their way in with a pure apprenticship. Even then it was 4 years of night school with on the job 6 days a week. The more education the more valuable you become. The more you understand and learn the more valuable you become.

I just don't know how people that don't make some real money are going to survive in this country, The rising cost of everything and the off-shoring of middle class job has to hit critical mass at some point. Eventually there will be insuffient buyers of the consumer goods being brought in the country.

[MBG]

yea I know... I just heard on CNBC that they said and I quote "any supplier that gets 20% or more of their jobs from delphi is in risk of going down"... well looks like my nice new job is no more.. :\...

[miljnor]

I think that the job market will eventialy I think that the job market will eventually turn around, it just how long it takes. As the standard of living increases in the offshore sector we in America will start to become more competitive just because the offshore jobs will start getting more money for what they are doing. And like someone stated earlier there will come a time when the consumers either don’t have jobs or the jobs won’t pay as much.

So in my mind equilibrium will be reached sooner or later. Of course how long it will take is anyone’s guess.

But just to give you an idea the Taiwanese markets can no longer compete like the Chinese and the Indian market can and they have been making stuff for America for years. Pretty soon the established Chinese markets will be competing with the up and comers in their own country and I think that is where it will get interesting.

Another thing that could happen is all these low income countries that are whoring there workers out to make cheap product are polluting the hell out of their land. They might in the next 5 to 10 years start really having some major fallout from these bad social practices.

[MBG]

I think that the job market will eventialy I think that the job market will eventually turn around, it just how long it takes. As the standard of living increases in the offshore sector we in America will start to become more competitive just because the offshore jobs will start getting more money for what they are doing. And like someone stated earlier there will come a time when the consumers either don’t have jobs or the jobs won’t pay as much.

So in my mind equilibrium will be reached sooner or later. Of course how long it will take is anyone’s guess.

But just to give you an idea the Taiwanese markets can no longer compete like the Chinese and the Indian market can and they have been making stuff for America for years. Pretty soon the established Chinese markets will be competing with the up and comers in their own country and I think that is where it will get interesting.

Another thing that could happen is all these low income countries that are whoring there workers out to make cheap product are polluting the hell out of their land. They might in the next 5 to 10 years start really having some major fallout from these bad social practices.

so that means that how many countries have to get on the equilibrium with us? mexica, south amera, africa!! haha it just goes on and on....

[Caprirs]

Miljnor is right about these poorer countries setting themselves up for serious environmental and human rights fallout both globally and within their own borders. Remember the controversy directed at companies doing business with South Africa when Apartheid was still policy. Similar backlash will arise when Americans become aware of conditions in other countries where American businesses have outsourced jobs. Already, there is a feeling in the US that consumers don't want to talk to someone in India about trouble with their computer or cell phone.

China will eventually come under global pressure to begin regulating its emissions if it wants to sell its goods on the world market. China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and others are very poor and large scale pollution will not make those places better. Currently, they are all too busy trying to drag themselves into the 1950s technology-wise to worry about the consequences. They all have a lot to learn and by the time they figure it out, the Western countries will be decades ahead.

Make sure that you keep your own level of knowledge and experience up by taking classes occasionally. Also attend trade shows like IMTS and Westec and walk around everything even if it's not your field. You'd be amazed at how much you can learn by asking a couple questions at those trade shows. These forums are great places to share info and learn from others. If you have the opportunity to visit other manufacturing shops, go and absorb what you can. And most important, do not rely on your employer to take care of you in the long run as it is no longer financially feasible for him to do that anymore.

[MBG]

thanks guys!

[Evodyne]

I'm tired so this might be a little fuzzy. IMO since our politicians have decided to play in a world market we will see a lower standard of living than we are used to. Some examples:

At the end of the big three (Ford, Chevy, Chrysler) days in the U.S. GM was living large and it's UAW (United Auto Workers) union agreements reflect that. In today's import-dominated market lower cost yet better built (I've a Toyota and a Chevy-the GM's fit and finish ARE scond rate) foreign imports are putting the squeeze on GM. Not to mention land yaghts and $3.00/gallon gas. But GM can't compete-their labor costs and health care costs (negotiated in a by-gone era) have them in a stranglehold. From a business point of view it's a cut and dried decision: break the unions. Or at least force them into serious concessions on wages and healthcare. Never happen you say. Bull! It's happening right now. Delphi Electronics just filed bankruptcy citing, guess what, wages and benefits, as the reason. But Delphi is a subsidiary of...can you guess...GM! GM is using Delphi as a test: they are going to get into court and try to get lower wages forced on the unions via court order-contracts be damned. And it it works what road will GM take with the UAW? It's a no-brainer.

Take a look at Mittal Steel's structure in the attached picture. They bought Inland Steel. When the current contracts for the steelworkers are up, does anyone doubt that Lakshmi N. Mittal, Chairman of the Board of Directors and Chief Executive Officer, will move to cut wages and benefits citing lower wages in the rest of his facilities.

US Steel is in the same boat. Their Gary Works facility is also getting quite old and in need of a major facelift. Their approach is expansion...overseas. They have a plant in Slovakia and, I believe, Poland, among others. The statistic on the Slovak workers vs. U.S workers was sobering: nearly a 20:1 pay skew! Again, what do you think will happen to the steelworker's wages and benefits over time in the U.S?

There are also lots of "invisible" jobs like medical transcription and programming that have moved to India and other countries. They have an American "Front End": you don't even KNOW the work has left our shores.

China? Everyone wants a piece of THAT pie. Do you think their human rights abuses magically disappeared when they got favored nation trading status? Hardly. But in a rush to get our share of their wealth we politely chose to look the other way. But that money is going into corporate pockets, while the displaced jobs hurt the everday US citizens.

Nope, when you play in a world market you can ONLY be competative when you can compete at the level of the lowest common denominator. Who's that today? China? Korea? Hmmm. Gotta get to work-I need to finish my fish and rice, put on my sandals, and hop on my bike. Bye!

Evodyne

Disclaimer: the above are my opinions only-not in any way related to the site!

[ElectronicsEng]

Although many in this thread have painted a somewhat gloomy picture for the US, the same can be said of ALL modern western economies. I currently live in Canada, but am Australian in origin and have lived and worked in the UK, France, Italy, Belgium, South Africa and the USA. For many years the US, Canada and Australia believed they could survivie. Until they found out the realities.

These countries have three enemies, themselves, the East and the Scandinavians. How did Motorola, the self-proclaimed inventor of the cell phone, lose so much ground to Nokia and Ericson in the technology race? And then LG (Lucky Goldstar of Korea) and others in the manufacturing race? Complacency maybe?

After years of owning cars all around the world why is it that my 2003 model GM car is the least fuel efficient, noisiest, heaviest and worst finished car that I have owned in maybe 15 years? This sucker won't be buying another GM car thats for sure.

I have only been in Canada for 5 years and I am only just getting back to my own small scale design (electronics engineer) practice after some large contracts are coming to an end. I want machining done, so until I found this place where did I end up? emachineshop.com! I can't find small jobbing shops to do prototype work and one-off work at reasonable prices. Everybody seems to want to make a million of something. So small operators need to band together to find a way of getting business - it is out there!

Others on this forum have talked about the problems of referral operations and the fact that they spend their lives quoting and not getting any work. Well, why not set up a co-op. Get a bunch of small shops, even garage shops, together. Start a jobbing network and promote it. In my fields of endeavour I talk to a lot of people. Lately I had been asking about "where do you go for laser cuttingm where do you get prototype sheet metal done, where do you get prototype milling done"? And do you know the answer? "If you find somebody who is any good let us know"!

American industry is not dieing, it is being killed off, by Americans themselves. The same is true in Australia, Canada and to some extent the UK. The solution is obvious, do something about it for yourself, you can't expect the other guy to solve your problem for you. Neither can you expect big business to do it. They have but one goal in view - maximise the return to the share golders - it doen't matter if the jobs are in India or Indiana, they don't care.

If Americans are to lift themselves out of the third world status they are assuming for themselves then the individual needs to do something for himself because the corporate moguls int heir gated communities aren't going to hear your screams are they?

[john now descends from soap box and runs like hell in case the rotten tomtaoes come flying!]

[miljnor]

thats kinda what I said in a...less inflamatory way but I cant read your attachement (and I got a big a$$ monitor)

[mxtras]

Don't get me started on labor unions.

They should have been abolished 50 years ago - even in the mining industry which is where the labor unions did the most good when they were incepted.

I agree the unions assisted in a downward spiral for American manufacturing - let's leave it at that. If you can't see that, then you have your head where is shouldn't be.

Somewhat intertwined with labor unions and the mentioned trade shows.....have you ever actually exhibited at a trade show in Detroit - not attended, but displayed? If not, you would be absolutely amazed at the cost of labor for those shows. It is un-comprehensible how much you are forced to pay for their mandated union labor. It has kept businesses away, believe me. It is corruption at it's finest – there’s no other way to look at it.

Scott

[WayneHill]

Don't get me started on labor unions.
Scott

I have been in a machinist labor union and agree with you :cheers:

[mxtras]

My brother worked in a copper mine in 1985 making $73/hour as an APPRENTICE electrician! Yup - union labor. He barely knew which end of a wire nut to use ....but he was worth $73/hour to the mine? Rediculous!

Scott

[Evodyne]

My brother worked in a copper mine in 1985 making $73/hour as an APPRENTICE electrician! Yup - union labor. He barely knew which end of a wire nut to use ....but he was worth $73/hour to the mine? Rediculous!

Scott

Hey, if everyone is getting that then more power to them. But when the South Korean guy does the same work for a fraction of the cost, something has to give. You can argue that what you brother did wasn't worth $73/hr. An assembly line worker for GM gets about $36/hr for their work. With benefit rolled in it's closer to $80-$90 per hour. Is he worth it? Not in today's world market. And it is the market that dictates it-not the UAW.

In my earlier post I speculated on the Delphi posturing. Look what I just found online:


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Delphi Corp.'s chief executive said a collapse of the auto supplier, which has filed for bankruptcy protection, would damage most of the world's automakers, and that the company can save its pension plan for U.S. hourly workers only if unions agree to work for a third of their old pay and benefits, according to two separate news reports published Tuesday.

Miller also told the Journal if Delphi can negotiate lower wages with the UAW and other smaller unions, he may be able to save more union jobs in North America, where Delphi has 45 manufacturing sites employing 49,000 workers.

Oh, by the way, the top Delphi officials gave themselves some juicy financial perks the day before they filed bankruptcy! Do anyone smell something?

Evodyne

[mxtras]

BCC - the latest craze - Big Company Corruption

Gotta love it! It's the American way.

I politely disagree with you, Evodyne but want more of your insight. I think the UAW has driven the wage up over the years - not the market. The UAW has normalized it's ranks to elevated wages and they have the industry by the throat. The market always wants lower prices for quality goods. The market does not bargain wages. The market does not demand that folks building cars make more than an equivalent job in the mid-west where they can't afford the cars that are built buy the folks making $38/hour because they are only making $10.50 to upolster the seats that the $38/hr guy installs.

If the market is what drove wages up, eventually there would be a balance across the economy and the industry, but the balance in this case comes with the slamming of doors all over the automotive community and jobs going bye-bye, which does impact the US economy dramatically - especially the tier 2 and tier 3 suppliers. They are the first to go which impacts towns that exist to feed them - such as many in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia among countless others.

Not to mention the JIT crap. JIT (Just In Time) sounds good on paper, and there are folks that believe that it is a good thing, but to the guys lower on the pole - they simply can not do it without incurring higher operating costs and more inventory, so they raise their prices and loose contracts because GM or Ford refuses to pay for the system they crammed down supplier's necks. I have seen it. I have been there at a management level. I have seen an $8MIL project flushed because the part would be 1.45% over budget.

Am I straying from the topic of the post? Sorry if so, but this seems pertinent...

Scott

[mxtras]

Depends on who you are. The lower level skills will keep getting outsourced. However, try as they might, the rest of the world cannot match the USA at the higher level skills regardless of the field/industry. The key to job security in the future will be to continue to learn and grow.

.......

Earlier this year I read a report that high tech education and research facility installations in the areas in question have surpassed the US by nearly twice in the last decade. What this means is that within 5-10 years, we will have lost whatever educational and technological edge we now believe we have. The writing is on the wall, but it's in Japanese.

I think the West cannot be beaten for high quality work and skill.

I respectfully disagree that the US leads in the quality department as a macro statement. Just as an example - I have NEVER seen an American car with more than 300,000 miles on the original engine (or even 200,000 for the transmission) - yet I have owned an import with over 525,000 on the original engine. I owned another with 360,000 with very minimal trouble - all original. While this may not attest to the skill of the labor on the floor - it does tell me that our technology is either tarnished by market demands or our technology is not all the grand - which is it? Or is it the Market's fault for demanding lower prices AND higher wages? A combination of the two?

I think I am agreeing with you, Caprirs, on this note - the American work ethic has changed in the last 15-20 years and it's catching up with us. We are just not as productive anymore - look at the local "fast food" chains - where is the "fast"?? They are dragging their butts while you stand and wait for them to finish their conversation before they rudely take your order. At least you will know where the party is Friday night and who will be there. Not that this is going to change the world economy, but it is something you just didn't see or hear of even 15 years ago and it is an indication of the attitude of "many" Americans. Good enough is now good enough. The 18-30 yr old crowd just doesn't seem to care - it's rife with the "get them before they get you" attitude.

I guess some of this is what you refered to, Caprirs. We need to wake up and not take the easiest route.

Respectfully,

Scott