When I was working in machine tool sales, we always were watching the "economic indicators" to forecast our sales for the comming months/year etc.
The one that always seemed accurate that we used, was also a bit late, but very accurate. It worked this way and it is very easy to monitor....
Using two trade magazines, at that time MetlFax and Modern Machine Shop, measure their thickness every month. Chart it out on graph paper as you would with any sample of data. With this chart you can see: the history, the present, and a trend towards to future.
I believe MetlFax went out of business - so that indicator didn't look too promising. Modern Machine Shop never recovered beyond .3125" thick in nearly 6 years. So, based on my economic indicators, we are either out of business, or in a horrid slump with no signs of recovery.
I have also noticed that during the last few years that the braniacs in Washington and on Wall street are not seeing the same economic indicators that I am, as they felt the economy was growing strong during that period. Or pehaps they just don't see the importance of a strong manufacturing base in the U.S. economy.
Seeing as this is a manufacturing related group, I suspect you folks have your reliable economic indicators you would like to share with others?
Chris :-)