Prices are high at filling stations, consumers are wondering how expensive petrol and diesel could still become and whether the situation could even arise in which fuel really becomes scarce.

Basically, it can be stated: The situation is currently changing at very short notice and further developments are difficult to predict. In addition, the oil and fuel market is less transparent than the natural gas market.

Europe’s oil supply is broadly diversified: in 2025 only about 6% of Germany’s oil imports came from the Middle East (EU ~13%), with Norway, the USA, Libya and Kazakhstan as main suppliers; Saudi Arabia accounts for around 6.5% at EU level and can largely bypass the Strait of Hormuz via the East‑West pipeline. Overall, the Gulf’s share is comparatively low, and Europe benefits from short transport routes and currently high freight rates, which strengthen its position in global oil markets. At European level, the situation is therefore considered to be robust.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) acts as a coordinating body and has contributed to market stabilization in the past by releasing strategic oil reserves. Among other things, it is also pursuing global government measures to save energy and support consumers in response to the effects of the conflict in the Middle East. The results can be viewed here. The status of European oil and gas reserves can be found here.

The situation in Europe is relatively stable overall. A major shift of oil volumes to Asia seems likely only in the event of a much stronger escalation. While political risks such as price caps are debated, a large supply shift appears limited, as other markets also face intervention and Germany remains an attractive market. The debate is thus mainly about prices, not shortages; an acute fuel supply crisis is currently unlikely.